home Oposición Venezolana ¡Sí, Luis!, por Luis Vicente León

¡Sí, Luis!, por Luis Vicente León

No me cabe duda que en el medio de su profunda crisis de flujo de caja, el Gobierno se verá obligado a buscar recursos externos para parapetear la economía. El tema es que los primeros pasos no lucen muy efectivos.

La primera estrategia fue engañar a las empresas privadas y autorizarles divisas para importaciones que luego no honró. Las empresas trajeron productos, lo que permitió que entraran al país mercancías que abastecieron parcialmente el mercado durante un período en el que el Gobierno redujo sus asignaciones de divisas sin caídas de abastecimiento. Cuando los retrasos de pago se hicieron insostenibles ocurrió lo esperado. Las empresas habían vendido sus mercancías en bolívares tomando como referente el tipo de cambio oficial. Para las empresas formales no había forma legal de obtener divisas para pagar a sus proveedores o headquarters, quienes bloquearon los despachos, produciéndose el desabastecimiento. Las empresas menos formales, que participan en el paralelo, también tuvieron pérdidas relevantes. Como no hay mercado paralelo legal, no pueden valorar sus mercancías el precio real y, por ende, no recuperan sus inversiones o deben trabajar ilegalmente y exponerse al castigo.

Las importaciones se desplomaron, junto a la producción y el abastecimiento. El Gobierno amenaza a las empresas con expropiarlas o apresar a sus dueños si no mantienen su producción. Algunos alargan la agonía, pero al final se bloquean los procesos ante una realidad concreta: “prefiero parar, cerrar o que me expropien, que perderla habiendo metido más plata, jugando ese juego perverso”.

Mientras tanto, el Gobierno aumenta las importaciones públicas, pero el problema sólo empeora. Más ineficiencia, más corrupción y menos importaciones por dólar colapsan la estrategia y conducen al país a su situación actual.

Entregas parciales e insuficientes de divisas para importaciones nuevas; negociaciones de pagos de deuda con bonos raros; más amenazas; reuniones para explicar que no tiene ni un duro; la declaración presidencial: “No se preocupen por los dólares, porque dólares no hay”y finalmente la invitación del Ministro para que “otros” rompan sus cochinitos para tratar de evitar lo inevitable han sido las “grandes” estrategias para enfrentar la crisis. No un cambio en el modelo colapsado. No el reconocimiento de sus errores y un propósito serio de enmienda. No la apertura cambiaria. No alianzas inteligentes con el sector privado. No la búsqueda de financiamiento en organismos internacionales, de lo que el país es miembro. Se decantan por un llamado desesperado a que los tenedores de capital, que están perdiendo dinero a diario, metan más dólares frescos en una cárcel que el carcelero dice que no abrirá, con los precios de sus bienes regulados por debajo de los costos de producción (perdiendo real), con la amenaza de que cuando el Gobierno quiera los expropia. Sin cambiar un ápice las condiciones que explican porque ya no son viables ni sostenibles sus actividades. Sólo cabe una expresión para responder a la pregunta: ¿es posible que esta estrategia de convocatoria oficial a la inversión, sin cambios en el modelo primitivo que origina la crisis, funcione? “Sí, Luis”.

VENEZUELA: ¡Sí, Luis!, por Luis Vicente León

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